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Mortgage rates rose modestly today after spending the past 2 days moving sideways. It was really yesterday's market weakness that caused today's move. Mortgage rates are most directly affected by the trading of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). When MBS are weaker, rates rise. MBS were weaker throughout the day yesterday, but not by quite enough for lenders to go to the trouble of revising their rate sheets for the worse. Instead, lenders simply waited until this morning to make the changes implied by the market. This delayed reaction is common when the market movement on any given day isn't quite enough to justify lender reprices. In the bigger picture, rates have been in a holding pattern, possibly waiting for some indication that the government shutdown will end. When such a thing happens
Mortgage rates held their ground today, keeping them in line with long-term lows achieved over the past 2 weeks. To be fair, it was the previous week that offered the biggest benefits, but last week was no slouch. Factoring out the first few days of January, it would have been the best week for mortgage rates since April 2018. It was a relatively quiet day for financial markets with the bonds that underlie mortgage rates trading in mostly the same territory as last week. It remains to be seen how markets will react to the absence of the typical spread of economic data (much of which is on hold due to the government shutdown ). Beyond that, the shutdown could certainly begin to have an effect on the economy itself although it's hard to say how big of an effect that would be. With this now being
Mortgage rates improved today, breaking a 3-day streak with effectively no change. This gets us part of the way back down to the long-term lows achieved at the end of last week. At that time, the average lender was quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates that were roughly 5/8ths of a percentage point (0.625%) lower than the long-term highs seen at the beginning of November. Rates then lurched higher by Tuesday of this week, eroding as much as a quarter of a point from some scenarios. Today's gains restored about half of that weakness for a net improvement of 0.5% from November's highs. At any time before last week, today's rates would be the lowest since April 2018. The swiftness with which those lows were achieved led some investors to worry about a swift bounce back. But it seems that as long
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