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Mortgage rates Moved just slightly lower today, despite some push back from underlying bond markets. Typically, weakness in the bond market (like the kind we saw today) corresponds to rising rates--even if only a modest amount. The compensating factor today was the timing of yesterday's bond market gains. Simply put, there is a bit of lag between bond market movement and mortgage lenders' ability or willingness to pass those gain along in terms of improved rates. Additionally, in this more volatile environment with rates already very close to super long-term lows, lenders are generally hesitant match the bond market's movement step for step. All of the above left lenders with some insulation against today's bond market weakness. Had it been any bigger, we probably would be talking about slightly
Economic data and mortgage rate movement go hand in hand. A stronger economy puts upward pressure on rates. A contracting economy helps rates move lower. While this is far from the only source of inspiration, it's indirectly linked to other major sources of inspiration (like Fed policy). Paradoxically, rates managed to move a bit lower today despite an exceptionally strong economic report. What's up with that? The Philadelphia Federal Reserve district publishes a highly regarded report on the manufacturing outlook each month (dubbed simply "The Philly Fed Survey"). It crushed expectations today. True to expectations, the bond market (which underlies mortgage rate momentum most directly) weakened at first, thus suggesting higher rates. But bonds quickly found their footing. This likely had to
Mortgage rates improved today, depending on the lender and the time of day! Underlying bond markets were only modestly stronger in the morning. As such, the average lender only offered modest improvements over yesterday's rates at first. But as the day progressed, market volatility favored bonds. Once bonds improved enough, many lenders ended up offering positive reprices. Even then, most lenders don't tend to drop rates enough to fully reflect friendly market movements such as today's. That means tomorrow's rates could be even better if the underlying bond market can merely manage to hold steady by tomorrow morning. Today's Most Prevalent Rates 30YR FIXED - 3.875% FHA/VA - 3.625% 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.5-3.625% 5 YEAR ARMS - 3.375-3.75% depending on the lender Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
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